Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Atlas Atl. San Luis vs Atlas

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

5-4-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Oct 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

ATLASATLAS

7-3-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
35%
DRAW
31%
ATLAS
35%
▲ Edge: +17.30% (Atlas)
43% Book Odds: +133
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +266
33% Book Odds: +206
Book Implied: 42.90% / 27.30% / 32.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Atlas)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (-0.2) 0 AtlasAtlas (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.3% / 43.7%

Shots (On Goal)

22(4) / 8(1)

Corners

7 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

15.9%

Atlas By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
39% Win Prob
A
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlas (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Atlas (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 30, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Atlas 0 - 1
Feb 21, 2026 Atlas vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 2
Oct 17, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs Atlas 2 - 0
Mar 2, 2025 Atlas vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 1
Aug 30, 2024 Atl. San Luis vs Atlas 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +80.0% more
Atlas: 9.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 5.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 4.0 vs Atlas: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score 1.0 1
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 50.0% Atlas Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Atlas
Atlético de San Luis
Atlas
ML
27% 4-11
53% 8-7
40% 6-9
47% 7-8
ATS
64% 9-5-1
61% 8-5-1
62% 8-5-2
52% 7-6-1
TTL
41% 5-8-1
67% 10-5
70% 9-4-1
47% 7-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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