Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Athletic vs Getafe Athletic vs Getafe

ATHLETICATHLETIC

4-4-3  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 9:00 AM ET
San Mamés

GETAFEGETAFE

3-3-6  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
61%
DRAW
21%
GETAFE
18%
▲ Edge: +24% (Getafe)
64% Book Odds: -180
DRAW --
15% Book Odds: +550
Book Implied: 64.30% / % / 15.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 52%
Under 2.5 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
GETAFE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
AthleticAthletic (-0.5) 0 GetafeGetafe (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.5% / 37.5%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 7(1)

Corners

2 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Getafe +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Getafe)

Athletic Club By 1 goal

26.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

36.9%

Getafe By 1 goal

11.1%

Getafe By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
1
GETAFE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
0
GETAFE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletic Club Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletic Club Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Getafe (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Athletic Club (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Athletic vs Getafe 4 - 0
Apr 5, 2026 Getafe vs Athletic 2 - 0
Oct 25, 2025 Athletic vs Getafe 0 - 1
May 15, 2025 Getafe vs Athletic 0 - 2
Aug 15, 2024 Athletic vs Getafe 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +150.0% more
Athletic: 4.0 vs Getafe: 10.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 1.0 vs Getafe: 2.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Athletic: 3.0 vs Getafe: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Getafe Score 1.0 0
Athletic Club Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Athletic Club (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Athletic Club Share: 66.7% Getafe Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Getafe
Athletic Club
Getafe
ML
82% 9-2
67% 8-4
27% 3-8
67% 8-4
ATS
55% 6-5
33% 4-8
36% 4-7
58% 7-5
TTL
73% 8-3
42% 5-7
73% 8-3
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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