Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Sunderland vs Leeds Sunderland vs Leeds

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

2-2-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 12:30 PM ET
Stadium of Light

LEEDSLEEDS

3-5-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SUNDERLAND
61%
DRAW
21%
LEEDS
18%
▲ Edge: +23.90% (Leeds United)
38% Book Odds: +167
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +220
34% Book Odds: +194
Book Implied: 37.50% / 31.20% / 34%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 55%
Under 2.25 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SUNDERLAND
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Sunderland)
SunderlandSunderland (0) 0 LeedsLeeds (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.4% / 49.6%

Shots (On Goal)

15(4) / 11(4)

Corners

4 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sunderland -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sunderland)

Sunderland By 1 goal

26.1%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

36.9%

Leeds United By 1 goal

11.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
2
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sunderland Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Leeds United Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sunderland (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Leeds United (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.3 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Sunderland vs Leeds 0 - 0
Mar 3, 2026 Leeds vs Sunderland 0 - 1
Dec 28, 2025 Sunderland vs Leeds 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 2.0 vs Sunderland: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Leeds: 9.0 vs Sunderland: 6.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Leeds: 2.0 vs Sunderland: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +10.0% more
Leeds: 10.0 vs Sunderland: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Leeds United Score 1.0 0
Sunderland Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Sunderland (Home) vs Leeds United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sunderland Share: 66.7% Leeds United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sunderland
Leeds United
Sunderland
Leeds United
ML
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
ATS
44% 4-5-1
0% 0-6-3
56% 5-4-1
31% 2-4-3
TTL
11% 1-8-1
20% 2-8
50% 4-4-1
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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