MAN UNITEDMAN UNITED
1-4-2 | Home
0
BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH
1-3-3 | Away
3
AI Model Win Probability
MAN UNITED
35%
DRAW
31%
BOURNEMOUTH
35%
▲ Edge: +17% (AFC Bournemouth)
41%
Book Odds: +145
DRAW
29%
Book Odds: +247
33%
Book Odds: +203
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75
45%
Under 2.75
55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Bournemouth)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
62.6% / 37.4%
Shots (On Goal)
17(5) / 10(4)
Corners
5 / 4
Cards (Y/R)
4/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around AFC Bournemouth 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFC Bournemouth)
Manchester United By 1 goal
21.1%
Manchester United By 2+ goals
15.9%
AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal
21.1%
AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Man United
1
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.50
Bournemouth
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
Man United
2
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.50
Bournemouth
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Draw
Loss
36% Win Prob
B
Sim
Manchester United
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
AFC Bournemouth (+0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim
Manchester United (-0.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim
o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 25, 2026
Man United vs Bournemouth
0 - 3
Mar 20, 2026
Bournemouth vs Man United
2 - 2
Apr 27, 2025
Bournemouth vs Man United
1 - 1
Dec 22, 2024
Man United vs Bournemouth
0 - 3
Apr 13, 2024
Bournemouth vs Man United
2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5)
+300.0% more
Bournemouth: 3.0
vs
Man United: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+125.0% more
Bournemouth: 9.0
vs
Man United: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+50.0% more
Bournemouth: 6.0
vs
Man United: 9.0
Draws (L5)
+300.0% more
Man United: 3.0
vs
Bournemouth: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AFC Bournemouth Score
1.0
3
Manchester United Score
1.0
0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Manchester United (Home)
vs
AFC Bournemouth (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
ML
25%
2-6
75%
6-2
12%
1-7
38%
3-5
ATS
86%
6-1-1
64%
4-2-1
14%
1-6-1
50%
3-3-1
TTL
53%
4-3
50%
3-3-2
33%
2-5
58%
3-2-2