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LIVERPOOLLIVERPOOL

3-3-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 10:00 AM ET
Anfield

BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

5-1-1  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
LIVERPOOL
18%
DRAW
21%
BRIGHTON
61%
▲ Edge: +37% (Brighton & Hove Albion)
49% Book Odds: +104
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +287
28% Book Odds: +253
Book Implied: 49% / 25.80% / 28.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 58%
Under 3.0 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Brighton)
LiverpoolLiverpool (-0.5) 0 BrightonBrighton (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

35.6% / 64.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 17(1)

Corners

4 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)

Liverpool By 1 goal

11.1%

Liverpool By 2+ goals

4.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

26.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.80
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
LIVERPOOL
Book Implied: 1.80
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brighton & Hove Albion Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Liverpool Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brighton & Hove Albion (+0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Liverpool (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Liverpool vs Brighton 2 - 0
Mar 21, 2026 Brighton vs Liverpool 2 - 1
Dec 13, 2025 Liverpool vs Brighton 2 - 0
May 19, 2025 Brighton vs Liverpool 3 - 2
Nov 2, 2024 Liverpool vs Brighton 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +1000.0% more
Brighton: 0.0 vs Liverpool: 10.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0 vs Liverpool: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 0.0 vs Liverpool: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +7.7% more
Brighton: 14.0 vs Liverpool: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 2.0 0
Liverpool Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Liverpool (Home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Liverpool Share: 33.3% Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
ML
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
ATS
88% 7-1
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
TTL
54% 3-3-1
47% 3-4
54% 3-3-1
47% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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