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C PALACEC PALACE

2-1-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 10:00 AM ET
Selhurst Park

NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
C PALACE
18%
DRAW
21%
NEWCASTLE
61%
▲ Edge: +12.50% (Newcastle United)
39% Book Odds: +157
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +259
36% Book Odds: +176
Book Implied: 38.90% / 27.90% / 36.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 40%
Under 2.75 60%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
NEWCASTLE
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Newcastle)
C PalaceC Palace (0) 0 NewcastleNewcastle (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.6% / 47.4%

Shots (On Goal)

17(4) / 10(2)

Corners

7 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Newcastle United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Newcastle United)

Crystal Palace By 1 goal

11.1%

Crystal Palace By 2+ goals

4.8%

Newcastle United By 1 goal

26.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1.40
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 1.40
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Newcastle United Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Newcastle United Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Newcastle United (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Newcastle United (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 C Palace vs Newcastle 0 - 2
Apr 12, 2026 C Palace vs Newcastle 2 - 1
Jan 4, 2026 Newcastle vs C Palace 2 - 0
Apr 16, 2025 Newcastle vs C Palace 5 - 0
Nov 30, 2024 C Palace vs Newcastle 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Newcastle: 2.0 vs C Palace: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +30.0% more
Newcastle: 10.0 vs C Palace: 13.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
C Palace: 1.0 vs Newcastle: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
C Palace: 7.0 vs Newcastle: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Newcastle United Score 2.0 2
Crystal Palace Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Newcastle United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Crystal Palace Share: 33.3% Newcastle United Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
ML
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
ATS
62% 5-3
46% 3-3-1
50% 4-4
31% 2-4-1
TTL
25% 2-6
40% 3-4
38% 3-5
29% 2-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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