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TIJUANATIJUANA

5-5-3  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Caliente

SANTOSSANTOS

6-1-7  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
TIJUANA
18%
DRAW
21%
SANTOS
61%
▲ Edge: +25.60% (Santos)
46% Book Odds: +116
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +270
30% Book Odds: +233
Book Implied: 46.30% / 27% / 30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 48%
Under 3.0 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Santos)
TijuanaTijuana (-0.2) 0 SantosSantos (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

41.8% / 58.2%

Shots (On Goal)

15(7) / 12(3)

Corners

3 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.60
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Santos Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Tijuana Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Santos (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Tijuana (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Tijuana vs Santos 4 - 1
Mar 14, 2026 Tijuana vs Santos 3 - 0
Mar 8, 2026 Tijuana vs Santos 1 - 2
Sep 24, 2025 Santos vs Tijuana 1 - 0
Aug 10, 2025 Santos vs Tijuana 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +500.0% more
Santos: 1.0 vs Tijuana: 6.0
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Santos: 4.0 vs Tijuana: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 10.0 vs Tijuana: 5.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 0.0 vs Tijuana: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Santos Score 2.0 1
Tijuana Score 1.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Tijuana (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tijuana Share: 33.3% Santos Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tijuana
Santos
Tijuana
Santos
ML
15% 2-11
50% 7-7
46% 6-7
71% 10-4
ATS
73% 8-3-2
38% 5-8-1
55% 6-5-2
69% 9-4-1
TTL
46% 6-7
65% 8-4-1
40% 5-7
54% 7-6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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