Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / América vs Pachuca América vs Pachuca

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-3-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 9:05 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

PACHUCAPACHUCA

4-4-6  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
61%
DRAW
21%
PACHUCA
18%
▲ Edge: +25.40% (Pachuca)
59% Book Odds: -143
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +311
21% Book Odds: +386
Book Implied: 58.80% / 24.30% / 20.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 57%
Under 3.0 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (América)
AméricaAmérica (-0.8) 0 PachucaPachuca (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.9% / 41.1%

Shots (On Goal)

21(8) / 16(4)

Corners

6 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)

América By 1 goal

26.1%

América By 2+ goals

36.9%

Pachuca By 1 goal

11.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI América Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim América Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI América (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim América (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 América vs Pachuca 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
América: 2.0 vs Pachuca: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Pachuca: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +120.0% more
América: 11.0 vs Pachuca: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score 1.0 2
América Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
América (Home) vs Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
América Share: 66.7% Pachuca Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Pachuca
América
Pachuca
ML
46% 6-7
29% 4-10
69% 9-4
31% 4-9
ATS
58% 7-5-1
72% 9-3-1
82% 9-2-2
25% 3-9-1
TTL
50% 6-6-1
55% 6-5-3
75% 9-3-1
30% 3-7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.