Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Cruz Azul Queretaro vs Cruz Azul

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-5  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

8-2-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
18%
DRAW
21%
CRUZ AZUL
61%
▲ Edge: +28.20% (Querétaro)
26% Book Odds: +280
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +278
51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 26.30% / 26.50% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 52%
Under 2.75 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Cruz Azul)
QueretaroQueretaro (+0.5) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.0% / 52.0%

Shots (On Goal)

10(4) / 14(7)

Corners

8 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.10
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Cruz Azul Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Cruz Azul (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Queretaro vs Cruz Azul 1 - 3
Apr 21, 2026 Queretaro vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Sep 24, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Queretaro 2 - 2
Feb 23, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Queretaro 1 - 0
Aug 23, 2024 Queretaro vs Cruz Azul 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 2.0 vs Queretaro: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 0.0 vs Queretaro: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +160.0% more
Cruz Azul: 13.0 vs Queretaro: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 3
Querétaro Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Querétaro (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 33.3% Cruz Azul Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
ML
38% 5-8
64% 9-5
38% 5-8
57% 8-6
ATS
55% 6-5-2
54% 7-6-1
42% 5-7-1
54% 7-6-1
TTL
65% 7-4-1
42% 5-7-2
57% 6-5-1
54% 7-6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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