Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlas vs Puebla Atlas vs Puebla

ATLASATLAS

6-3-4  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-5  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
35%
DRAW
31%
PUEBLA
35%
▲ Edge: +32.50% (Puebla)
62% Book Odds: -166
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +321
18% Book Odds: +470
Book Implied: 62.40% / 23.80% / 17.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 39%
Under 2.75 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Puebla)
AtlasAtlas (-1) 0 PueblaPuebla (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

51.7% / 48.3%

Shots (On Goal)

16(6) / 12(4)

Corners

7 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Atlas By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

15.9%

Puebla By 1 goal

21.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.90
1
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw
48% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlas
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Puebla (+1)
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Puebla (+1)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 Atlas vs Puebla 4 - 3
Jan 9, 2026 Atlas vs Puebla 1 - 0
Jul 11, 2025 Puebla vs Atlas 2 - 3
Feb 15, 2025 Atlas vs Puebla 3 - 2
Jul 19, 2024 Puebla vs Atlas 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Puebla: 3.0 vs Atlas: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +28.6% more
Puebla: 7.0 vs Atlas: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Atlas: 9.0 vs Puebla: 3.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Puebla Score 1.0 3
Atlas Score 1.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlas (Home) vs Puebla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 50.0% Puebla Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
Puebla
Atlas
Puebla
ML
62% 8-5
38% 5-8
46% 6-7
46% 6-7
ATS
60% 7-5
71% 7-3-2
48% 6-6
63% 6-3-3
TTL
69% 9-4
42% 5-7-1
38% 5-8
46% 6-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.