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UNAMUNAM

4-4-5  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

TIGRESTIGRES

3-5-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
35%
DRAW
31%
TIGRES
35%
▲ Edge: +19.10% (Tigres UANL)
45% Book Odds: +122
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +265
31% Book Odds: +224
Book Implied: 45% / 27.40% / 30.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 44%
Under 2.75 56%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Tigres)
UNAMUNAM (-0.2) 0 TigresTigres (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.9% / 56.1%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 14(8)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

21.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
38% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Tigres UANL (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 UNAM vs Tigres 1 - 1
Jan 14, 2026 Tigres vs UNAM 0 - 1
Sep 20, 2025 UNAM vs Tigres 1 - 1
Apr 19, 2025 Tigres vs UNAM 2 - 1
Sep 1, 2024 UNAM vs Tigres 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs UNAM: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Tigres: 5.0 vs UNAM: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
UNAM: 7.0 vs Tigres: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 1
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0% Tigres UANL Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM
Tigres UANL
ML
57% 8-6
36% 5-9
23% 3-10
7% 1-13
ATS
54% 7-6-1
72% 9-3-1
21% 2-9-1
33% 4-8-2
TTL
70% 9-4
36% 5-9
67% 8-4-1
36% 5-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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