Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Monterrey vs Guadalajara Monterrey vs Guadalajara

MONTERREYMONTERREY

6-3-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio BBVA

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

8-6-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
35%
DRAW
31%
GUADALAJARA
35%
▲ Edge: +18.80% (Guadalajara)
43% Book Odds: +133
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +242
31% Book Odds: +220
Book Implied: 42.90% / 29.20% / 31.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
GUADALAJARA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Guadalajara)
MonterreyMonterrey (-0.2) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.1% / 38.9%

Shots (On Goal)

11(5) / 11(7)

Corners

8 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Guadalajara 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Guadalajara)

Monterrey By 1 goal

21.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

15.9%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

21.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.50
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
43% Win Prob
A
Sim Monterrey Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guadalajara (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Monterrey (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Monterrey vs Guadalajara 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +250.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Monterrey: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 0.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +80.0% more
Monterrey: 9.0 vs Guadalajara: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 1.0 1
Monterrey Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Monterrey (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Monterrey Share: 50.0% Guadalajara Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Guadalajara
Monterrey
Guadalajara
ML
25% 3-9
54% 7-6
33% 4-8
46% 6-7
ATS
41% 4-6-1
73% 8-3-2
36% 4-7-1
36% 4-7-2
TTL
55% 6-5-1
71% 8-3-1
45% 5-6-1
33% 4-8-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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