Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs Toluca León vs Toluca

LEÓNLEÓN

6-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio León

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-4-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
18%
DRAW
21%
TOLUCA
61%
▲ Edge: +38.40% (León)
24% Book Odds: +321
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +280
54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 23.80% / 26.30% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 36%
Under 3.25 64%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TOLUCA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Toluca)
LeónLeón (+0.5) 0 TolucaToluca (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

37.6% / 62.4%

Shots (On Goal)

16(7) / 14(5)

Corners

3 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Toluca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Toluca)

León By 1 goal

11.1%

León By 2+ goals

4.8%

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.90
Simulated Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toluca
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Toluca
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toluca (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Toluca (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.3
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 León vs Toluca 1 - 1
Jan 10, 2026 León vs Toluca 0 - 1
Dec 6, 2025 Toluca vs León 3 - 2
Dec 3, 2025 León vs Toluca 1 - 0
Oct 4, 2025 León vs Toluca 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Toluca: 3.0 vs León: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +11.1% more
Toluca: 10.0 vs León: 9.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
León: 2.0 vs Toluca: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Toluca: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 2.0 1
León Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
León (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 33.3% Toluca Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Toluca
León
Toluca
ML
38% 5-8
46% 6-7
31% 4-9
46% 6-7
ATS
68% 6-3-3
55% 6-5-2
37% 3-6-3
82% 9-2-2
TTL
36% 4-8
33% 4-8-1
44% 5-7
61% 7-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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