Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlante vs Atl. San Luis Atlante vs Atl. San Luis

ATLANTEATLANTE

3-5-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

4-4-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLANTE
61%
DRAW
21%
ATL. SAN LUIS
18%
▲ Edge: +23.80% (Atlético de San Luis)
44% Book Odds: +125
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +246
30% Book Odds: +234
Book Implied: 44.40% / 28.90% / 29.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 53%
Under 2.5 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Atlante)
AtlanteAtlante (-0.2) 0 Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.8% / 56.2%

Shots (On Goal)

21(9) / 7(4)

Corners

7 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Atlante By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlante Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlante Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlante (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Atlante (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 Atlante vs Atl. San Luis 0 - 1
Mar 3, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Atlante 4 - 1
Oct 3, 2025 Atlante vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 1
Apr 5, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs Atlante 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2024 Atlante vs Atl. San Luis 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 1.0 vs Atlante: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 1.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Atl. San Luis: 7.0 vs Atlante: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.0 1
Atlante Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlante (Home) vs Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlante Share: 66.7% Atlético de San Luis Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlante
Atlético de San Luis
Atlante
Atlético de San Luis
ML
43% 6-8
29% 4-10
14% 2-12
43% 6-8
ATS
64% 8-4-1
62% 8-5-1
26% 3-8-2
58% 7-5-2
TTL
21% 3-11
36% 4-8-1
56% 7-6
68% 8-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.