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NECAXANECAXA

2-3-8  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Victoria

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-1-11  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NECAXA
61%
DRAW
21%
JUÁREZ
18%
▲ Edge: +39.30% (FC Juárez)
57% Book Odds: -134
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +299
21% Book Odds: +368
Book Implied: 57.30% / 25.10% / 21.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 59%
Under 2.75 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
NECAXA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Necaxa)
NecaxaNecaxa (-0.8) 0 JuárezJuárez (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.4% / 51.6%

Shots (On Goal)

16(7) / 24(5)

Corners

7 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Necaxa -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Necaxa)

Necaxa By 1 goal

26.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

36.9%

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.80
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1.80
0
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Necaxa Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Necaxa Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Necaxa (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Necaxa (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 Necaxa vs Juárez 1 - 1
Feb 14, 2026 Juárez vs Necaxa 1 - 2
Feb 7, 2026 Necaxa vs Juárez 2 - 0
Nov 23, 2025 Juárez vs Necaxa 2 - 1
Oct 18, 2025 Juárez vs Necaxa 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Necaxa: 5.0 vs Juárez: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +11.1% more
Juárez: 9.0 vs Necaxa: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score 1.0 1
Necaxa Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Necaxa (Home) vs FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Necaxa Share: 66.7% FC Juárez Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Necaxa
FC Juárez
Necaxa
FC Juárez
ML
43% 6-8
50% 7-7
50% 7-7
71% 10-4
ATS
57% 8-6
45% 5-6-3
57% 8-6
75% 9-3-2
TTL
57% 8-6
38% 5-8-1
86% 12-2
62% 8-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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