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LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

4-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

7-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Eddy Pineiro None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
23%
📊
49ERS
77%
RAIDERS 24% Book Odds: +320
49ERS 80% Book Odds: -410
Book Implied: 23.80% / 80.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 51.5 44%
Under 51.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
RaidersLV (+8.5) 0 49ersSF (-8.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

22.7%

49ers Cover

77.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

LV By 1-6 points

10.4%

LV By 7-13 points

6.9%

SF By 1-6 points

15.0%

SF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21.50
30
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
17
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21.50
31
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim 49ers Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.5
C
Sim 49ers (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
C
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 LV @ SF 17 - 38
Jan 1, 2023 SF @ LV 37 - 34
Nov 1, 2018 LV @ SF 3 - 34
Dec 7, 2014 SF @ LV 13 - 24
Oct 17, 2010 LV @ SF 9 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +166.0% more
San Francisco: 2.2 vs Las Vegas: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +66.1% more
San Francisco: 121.4 vs Las Vegas: 73.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.1% more
San Francisco: 6.1 vs Las Vegas: 5.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Las Vegas: 268.7 vs San Francisco: 245.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 19.5 17
SF Score 30.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 20.8 27.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 245.2 / 268.7 224.0 / 216.0
Rushing Yards 121.4 / 73.1 190.0 / 24.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 366.6 / 341.8 414.0 / 240.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 5.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.5 6.0 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +320 / -410
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +8.5 / -8.5
38%TICKETS62%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 51.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
SF Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: +5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
SF
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: +5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +8.8
SF
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
LV
SF
LV
ML
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
25% 2-6
67% 6-3
ATS
25% 2-6
44% 4-5
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
TTL
50% 4-4
22% 2-7
62% 5-3
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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