Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Chargers HOU @ LAC

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

3-5  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-8  |  Home

22
Key Game
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Kai Kroeger None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
49%
📊
CHARGERS
51%
▲ Edge: +17.70% (LAC)
TEXANS 69% Book Odds: -225
CHARGERS 33% Book Odds: +199
Book Implied: 69.20% / 33.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 40.5 61%
Under 40.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 points (Los Angeles)
TexansHOU (-5.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+5.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

34.5%

Chargers Cover

65.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

HOU By 1-6 points

13.8%

HOU By 7-13 points

10.7%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.8%

LAC By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 23
24.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17.50
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 23
17
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.6
A
Sim Texans (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 HOU @ LAC 44 - 22
Dec 27, 2025 HOU @ LAC 20 - 16
Jan 11, 2025 LAC @ HOU 12 - 32
Oct 2, 2022 LAC @ HOU 34 - 24
Dec 26, 2021 LAC @ HOU 29 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +185.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.3 vs Houston: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Los Angeles: 97.8 vs Houston: 88.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.1% more
Houston: 234.4 vs Los Angeles: 182.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.6% more
Houston: 5.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 19.2 44
LAC Score 24.8 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 18.6 14.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 182.6 / 234.4 177.0 / 381.0
Rushing Yards 97.8 / 88.1 138.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 280.4 / 322.6 315.0 / 485.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.5 4.6 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → -225 / +199 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 40.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
LAC
0-8-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
LAC
0-7-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +7.2
LAC
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
HOU
LAC
HOU
ML
50% 4-4
12% 1-7
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
ATS
29% 2-5-1
38% 3-5
14% 1-6-1
50% 4-4
TTL
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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