Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Panthers DEN @ CAR

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

7-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

3-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
61%
📊
PANTHERS
39%
BRONCOS 62% Book Odds: -162
PANTHERS 42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 61.80% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.6
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 44.5 59%
Under 44.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3) 0 PanthersCAR (+3)
Denver Broncos (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

66.6%

Panthers Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.0%

CAR By 1-6 points

13.5%

CAR By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
DENVER
Book Implied: 23.80
20.8
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.80
Simulated Score
24
DENVER
Book Implied: 23.80
21
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Broncos Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Panthers (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.6
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 DEN @ CAR 26 - 21
Oct 27, 2024 CAR @ DEN 14 - 28
Nov 27, 2022 DEN @ CAR 10 - 23
Dec 13, 2020 DEN @ CAR 32 - 27
Sep 8, 2016 CAR @ DEN 20 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +150.0% more
Carolina: 1.8 vs Denver: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.8% more
Carolina: 221.4 vs Denver: 186.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Carolina: 0.4 vs Denver: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Carolina: 317.3 vs Denver: 285.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 26.8 26
CAR Score 20.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 18.1 28.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 221.4 / 186.3 257.0 / 230.0
Rushing Yards 95.9 / 99.1 96.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.3 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 317.3 / 285.4 353.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.0 5.7 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -162 / +136
89%TICKETS11%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3 / +3
69%TICKETS31%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 44.5 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.7
CAR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.7
CAR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.3
CAR
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
DEN
CAR
DEN
ML
38% 3-5
67% 6-3
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
ATS
50% 4-4
89% 8-1
62% 5-3
44% 4-5
TTL
71% 5-2-1
67% 6-3
43% 3-4-1
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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