Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Dolphins DET @ MIA

DETROIT

LIONSDET

6-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-7  |  Home

9
Key Game
Jake Bates
KEY GAME

Jake Bates

#39 | Place kicker
@
Zane Gonzalez
KEY GAME

Zane Gonzalez

#45 | Place kicker
Player
Jake Bates None-None
Zane Gonzalez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
71%
📊
DOLPHINS
29%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MIA)
LIONS 75% Book Odds: -305
DOLPHINS 29% Book Odds: +245
Book Implied: 75.30% / 29%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 54%
Under 49.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-6.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+6.5)
Detroit Lions (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

70.4%

Dolphins Cover

29.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.3%

DET By 7-13 points

19.4%

MIA By 1-6 points

12.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
29
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28
21.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 21.50
Simulated Score
31
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28
18
MIAMI
Book Implied: 21.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Lions Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim Lions (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 DET @ MIA 19 - 9
Oct 30, 2022 MIA @ DET 31 - 27
Oct 21, 2018 DET @ MIA 32 - 21
Nov 9, 2014 MIA @ DET 16 - 20
Dec 26, 2010 DET @ MIA 34 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.1% more
Detroit: 245.3 vs Miami: 171.6
Total Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Detroit: 398.9 vs Miami: 296.2
First Downs (L5) +24.9% more
Detroit: 24.4 vs Miami: 18.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.8% more
Detroit: 153.5 vs Miami: 124.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 29.0 19
MIA Score 21.5 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 24.4 12.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 171.6 / 245.3 151.0 / 168.0
Rushing Yards 124.6 / 153.5 77.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 296.2 / 398.9 228.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.0 4.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -278 / +225 → -305 / +245 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -6.5 / +6.5
84%TICKETS16%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -0.3
MIA
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
ATS
57% 4-3-1
57% 4-3-1
57% 4-3-1
71% 5-2-1
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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