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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

4-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-7  |  Home

23
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
52%
📊
COLTS
48%
▲ Edge: +12% (IND)
COWBOYS 69% Book Odds: -218
COLTS 36% Book Odds: +180
Book Implied: 68.60% / 35.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 51.5 44%
Under 51.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indianapolis)
CowboysDAL (-4.5) 0 ColtsIND (+4.5)
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

48.6%

Colts Cover

51.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.6%

DAL By 7-13 points

15.8%

IND By 1-6 points

16.3%

IND By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
25
DALLAS
Book Implied: 28
24.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
30
DALLAS
Book Implied: 28
23
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colts (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +0.5
B
Sim Cowboys (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.5
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 DAL @ IND 27 - 23
Dec 4, 2022 IND @ DAL 19 - 54
Dec 16, 2018 DAL @ IND 0 - 23
Dec 21, 2014 IND @ DAL 7 - 42
Dec 5, 2010 DAL @ IND 38 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.3% more
Dallas: 225.4 vs Indianapolis: 155.0
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Dallas: 22.3 vs Indianapolis: 18.1
Total Yards (L5) +17.0% more
Dallas: 334.2 vs Indianapolis: 277.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.3% more
Dallas: 5.0 vs Indianapolis: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 25.0 27
IND Score 24.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 22.3 15.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 155.0 / 225.4 166.0 / 329.0
Rushing Yards 122.5 / 108.7 105.0 / 179.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 277.5 / 334.2 271.0 / 508.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 5.0 4.6 / 7.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -218 / +180 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +3.1
IND
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DAL
IND
DAL
ML
78% 7-2
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
ATS
33% 3-6
75% 6-2-1
33% 3-6
50% 4-4-1
TTL
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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