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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

6-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 9:30 AM ET
Santiago Bernabéu
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-6  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Jake Bailey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
65%
📊
FALCONS
35%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (CIN)
BENGALS 63% Book Odds: -173
FALCONS 39% Book Odds: +155
Book Implied: 63.40% / 39.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 33%
Under 52.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
BengalsCIN (-3) 0 FalconsATL (+3)
Atlanta Falcons (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

44.3%

Falcons Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

16.8%

ATL By 1-6 points

15.7%

ATL By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27.80
22.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
28
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 27.80
23
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bengals Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Bengals Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Bengals (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 CIN @ ATL 34 - 17
Oct 23, 2022 ATL @ CIN 17 - 35
Sep 30, 2018 CIN @ ATL 37 - 36
Sep 14, 2014 ATL @ CIN 10 - 24
Oct 24, 2010 CIN @ ATL 32 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.1% more
Cincinnati: 325.1 vs Atlanta: 181.7
First Downs (L5) +37.3% more
Cincinnati: 24.1 vs Atlanta: 15.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +34.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.7% more
Cincinnati: 405.1 vs Atlanta: 289.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 24.5 34
ATL Score 22.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 24.1 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 181.7 / 325.1 162.0 / 265.0
Rushing Yards 107.3 / 80.1 157.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 289.0 / 405.1 319.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.9 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.4 5.8 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -230 / +190 → -173 / +155 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -3 / +3 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 52.5 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +3.8
ATL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +3.8
ATL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.3
ATL
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
ATS
33% 3-6
29% 2-5-1
33% 3-6
86% 6-1-1
TTL
33% 3-6
50% 4-4
44% 4-5
88% 7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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