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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

5-4-3  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 10:30 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

6-6-1  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Colten Ellis
GOALTENDER

Colten Ellis

#92 | Goaltender
@
Yaroslav Askarov
GOALTENDER

Yaroslav Askarov

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Colten Ellis None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Yaroslav Askarov None-None 1.01 0.974 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 1.01
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.974
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
64%
📊
SHARKS
36%
▲ Edge: +3.50% (BUF)
SABRES 61% Book Odds: -155
SHARKS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 60.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
SabresBUF (-1.5) 0 SharksSJ (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

22.7%

Sharks Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

BUF By 1 goal

19.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

34.1%

SJ By 1 goal

9.2%

SJ By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4
2.5
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4
3
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Sabres Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Sharks Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sharks (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Sharks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2026 BUF @ SJ 2 - 0
Mar 19, 2026 BUF @ SJ 5 - 0
Mar 10, 2026 SJ @ BUF 3 - 6
Mar 4, 2025 SJ @ BUF 6 - 2
Nov 23, 2024 BUF @ SJ 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +33.2% more
Buffalo: 5.9 vs San Jose: 3.9
Faceoff % (L5) +5.5%
Buffalo: 50.6% vs San Jose: 45.1%
Hits (L5) +34.2% more
San Jose: 22.5 vs Buffalo: 16.8
Power Play % (L5) +26.4%
San Jose: 36.3% vs Buffalo: 9.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 4.0 2
SJ Score 2.5 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.6 / 11.1 12.0 / 20.0
Faceoff % 45.1 / 50.6 55.2 / 44.8
Hits 22.5 / 16.8 35.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 3633.0 / 989.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.9 / 25.2 23.0 / 40.0
Takeaways 3.9 / 5.9 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -155 / +130 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
19%TICKETS81%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
93%TICKETS7%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
BUF
SJ
BUF
ML
59% 13-9
70% 14-6
45% 10-12
45% 9-11
ATS
41% 9-13
45% 9-11
45% 10-12
70% 14-6
TTL
50% 11-11
55% 11-9
55% 12-10
45% 9-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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