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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

7-3-2  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
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ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

5-6-1  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | Goaltender
@
Jordan Binnington
GOALTENDER

Jordan Binnington

#50 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jacob Fowler None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Jordan Binnington None-None 2.22 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 2.22
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.900
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
55%
📊
BLUES
45%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MTL)
CANADIENS 53% Book Odds: -112
BLUES 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 52.80% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.0 51%
Under 6.0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
CanadiensMTL (-1.5) 0 BluesSTL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

22.7%

Blues Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MTL By 1 goal

19.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

STL By 1 goal

9.2%

STL By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 3.80
2.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.20
Simulated Score
2
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 3.80
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Canadiens Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blues (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Blues (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2026 MTL @ STL 2 - 0
Jan 3, 2026 MTL @ STL 0 - 2
Dec 7, 2025 STL @ MTL 4 - 3
Mar 25, 2025 MTL @ STL 1 - 6
Oct 26, 2024 STL @ MTL 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +29.6% more
Montreal: 23.4 vs St. Louis: 16.5
Takeaways (L5) +24.9% more
Montreal: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 2.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +19.9% more
Montreal: 13.4 vs St. Louis: 10.7
Faceoff % (L5) +4.1%
Montreal: 54.0% vs St. Louis: 50.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 4.0 2
STL Score 2.5 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 10.7 / 13.4 11.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 50.0 / 54.0 59.3 / 40.7
Hits 16.5 / 23.4 26.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 3256.0 / 695.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.7 / 27.7 46.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 2.7 / 3.7 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → -112 / +102 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MTL
STL
MTL
ML
50% 10-10
60% 12-8
65% 13-7
45% 9-11
ATS
40% 8-12
40% 8-12
50% 10-10
75% 15-5
TTL
26% 5-14-1
45% 9-11
63% 12-7-1
50% 10-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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