Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Spurs SAC @ SA

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-4  |  Road

103
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

2-2  |  Home

130
Key Game
Emanuel Sharp
KEY GAME

Emanuel Sharp

#34 | Guard
@
Jordan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Jordan McLaughlin

#0 | Guard
Player
Emanuel Sharp None-None
Jordan McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
11%
📊
SPURS
89%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (SAC)
KINGS 10% Book Odds: +950
SPURS 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 9.50% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
232.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.5 (Under)
Over 232.5 31%
Under 232.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
+19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (+19.5) 0 SpursSA (-19.5)
Sacramento Kings (+19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

91.9%

Spurs Cover

8.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

5.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

1.4%

SA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SA By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
105
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 106.50
119
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 126
Simulated Score
97
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 106.50
105
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 126
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Spurs Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim Spurs Win
71% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kings (+19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
B
Sim Kings (+19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
A
Sim u232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 202.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2026 SA @ SAC 124 - 109
Oct 27, 2026 SAC @ SA 103 - 130
Mar 17, 2026 SA @ SAC 132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026 SAC @ SA 122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025 SAC @ SA 110 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.7% more
San Antonio: 6.7 vs Sacramento: 4.0
Steals (L5) +21.5% more
San Antonio: 9.3 vs Sacramento: 7.7
Assists (L5) +17.3% more
San Antonio: 25.6 vs Sacramento: 21.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
San Antonio: 33.5% vs Sacramento: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 105.0 103
SA Score 119.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 30.3 46.0 / 35.0
Assists 25.6 / 21.9 35.0 / 28.0
Blocks 6.7 / 4.0 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 46.3 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 71.8 79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 43.7 46.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.7 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 15.1 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1800 → +950 / -1587 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +18.5 / -18.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 231.5 → 232.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-11-0 (8.3%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -2.9
SA Advantage
11-2-0 (84.6%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -2.9
SA Advantage
6-7-0 (46.2%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.1
SA
4-9-0
O: 30.8% / U: 69.2% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
SAC
SA
SAC
ML
85% 11-2
92% 11-1
77% 10-3
75% 9-3
ATS
46% 6-7
42% 5-7
23% 3-10
42% 5-7
TTL
46% 6-7
17% 2-10
46% 6-7
33% 4-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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