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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

103-59  |  Road

10
FINAL
Mon, Oct 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Robert Gasser
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Gasser

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Freddy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Freddy Peralta

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robert Gasser 0-0 1.00 0.89 9.0 6
Freddy Peralta 2-0 1.08 1.14 16.2 12
0-0 W-L 2-0
1.00 Ldr ERA 1.08
0.89 Ldr WHIP 1.14
9.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 16.2
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 12
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
52%
📊
RAYS
48%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (MIL)
BREWERS 50% Book Odds: +102
RAYS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 49.50% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 7.0 65%
Under 7.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
3.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 2.80
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2026 MIL @ TB 4 - 1
Oct 27, 2026 MIL @ TB 3 - 4
Oct 26, 2026 MIL @ TB 10 - 1
Oct 24, 2026 TB @ MIL 4 - 5
Oct 23, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743 ▲
OPS
.728
154
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +40.9% more
Milwaukee: 4.5 vs Tampa Bay: 2.6
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +30.3% more
Milwaukee: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +15.9% more
Milwaukee: 13.7 vs Tampa Bay: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.2 10
TB Score 3.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.9 3.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.6 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 13.7 4.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -121 → +102 / -110 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
80%TICKETS20%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
114-61-0 (65.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-:
TB
106-70-0 (60.2%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(53.7%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
78-92-5
O: 45.9% / U: 54.1% Total +/-: +0.8
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIL
TB
MIL
ML
60% 37-25
66% 41-21
48% 30-32
55% 34-28
ATS
48% 30-32
47% 29-33
52% 32-30
45% 28-34
TTL
44% 26-33-3
45% 26-32-4
46% 27-32-3
52% 30-28-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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