TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
103-59 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 1-0 | 3.00 | 1.11 | 9.0 | 6 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 0-0 | 3.24 | 1.56 | 8.1 | 11 |
1-0
W-L
0-0
3.00 Ldr
ERA
3.24
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.56
9.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
8.1
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 11
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
44%
BREWERS
56%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (TB)
RAYS
38%
Book Odds: +165
BREWERS
64%
Book Odds: -181
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 6.5
70%
Under 6.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
TB By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.8%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 28, 2026
MIL @ TB
4 - 1
Oct 27, 2026
MIL @ TB
3 - 4
Oct 26, 2026
MIL @ TB
10 - 1
Oct 24, 2026
TB @ MIL
4 - 5
Oct 23, 2026
TB @ MIL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.728
OPS
▲
.743
169
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+81.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+74.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.2% more
Milwaukee: 10.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+24.2% more
Milwaukee: 4.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.2
2
MIL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.8
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 13.0
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +132 / -160
→
+165 / -181
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6
→
6.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
106-70-0
(60.2%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
114-61-0
(65.1%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
MIL
(53.7%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
78-92-5
O: 45.9% / U: 54.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TB
MIL
TB
ML
66%
41-21
60%
37-25
55%
34-28
48%
30-32
ATS
47%
29-33
48%
30-32
45%
28-34
52%
32-30
TTL
45%
26-32-4
44%
26-33-3
52%
30-28-4
46%
27-32-3
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