Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Atlético vs Deportivo Atlético vs Deportivo

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

7-1-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:00 PM ET
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

DEPORTIVODEPORTIVO

2-5-2  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATLÉTICO
78%
DRAW
13%
DEPORTIVO
9%
▲ Edge: +15.50% (Deportivo)
80% Book Odds: -390
DRAW --
9% Book Odds: +1000
Book Implied: 79.60% / % / 9.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 3.5 52%
Under 3.5 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-2.0
ATLÉTICO
Book Goal Line
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlético)
AtléticoAtlético (-1.5) 0 DeportivoDeportivo (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.6% / 44.4%

Shots (On Goal)

20(4) / 15(5)

Corners

3 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético Madrid -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético Madrid)

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

63.1%

Deportivo By 1 goal

3.8%

Deportivo By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 2.50
1
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
3
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 2.50
0
DEPORTIVO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Atlético Madrid
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlético Madrid
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlético Madrid (-1.75)
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Sim Atlético Madrid (-1.75)
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.25
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u3.3
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Atlético vs Deportivo 1 - 0
Apr 1, 2018 Atlético vs Deportivo 1 - 0
Nov 4, 2017 Deportivo vs Atlético 0 - 1
Mar 2, 2017 Deportivo vs Atlético 1 - 1
Sep 25, 2016 Atlético vs Deportivo 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Atlético: 4.0 vs Deportivo: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Atlético: 0.0 vs Deportivo: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
Atlético: 3.0 vs Deportivo: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Atlético: 8.0 vs Deportivo: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Deportivo Score 1.0 0
Atlético Madrid Score 3.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Atlético Madrid (Home) vs Deportivo (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético Madrid Share: 75.0% Deportivo Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético Madrid
Deportivo
Atlético Madrid
Deportivo
ML
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
11% 1-8
ATS
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
53% 4-4
11% 1-8
TTL
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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