Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Valencia vs Villarreal Valencia vs Villarreal

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-3-6  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:30 PM ET
Mestalla Stadium

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

3-3-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
VALENCIA
18%
DRAW
21%
VILLARREAL
61%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (Villarreal)
30% Book Odds: +235
DRAW --
47% Book Odds: +115
Book Implied: 29.90% / % / 46.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 58%
Under 2.5 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Villarreal)
ValenciaValencia (+0.5) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

38.5% / 61.5%

Shots (On Goal)

9(5) / 19(3)

Corners

6 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

3/1 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
1
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Villarreal Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Villarreal Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Villarreal (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Villarreal (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Valencia vs Villarreal 1 - 2
Feb 22, 2026 Villarreal vs Valencia 2 - 1
Oct 25, 2025 Valencia vs Villarreal 0 - 2
Feb 15, 2025 Villarreal vs Valencia 1 - 1
Aug 31, 2024 Valencia vs Villarreal 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Villarreal: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +80.0% more
Villarreal: 9.0 vs Valencia: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Valencia: 2.0 vs Villarreal: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +16.7% more
Valencia: 6.0 vs Villarreal: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 2.0 2
Valencia Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Valencia (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Valencia Share: 33.3% Villarreal Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Valencia
Villarreal
Valencia
Villarreal
ML
70% 7-3
40% 4-6
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
ATS
84% 8-1
80% 8-2
47% 4-5
30% 3-7
TTL
40% 4-6
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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