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RAYORAYO

2-3-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 8:00 AM ET
Estadio de Vallecas

ELCHEELCHE

1-4-4  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYO
61%
DRAW
21%
ELCHE
18%
▲ Edge: +19.90% (Elche)
57% Book Odds: -135
DRAW --
22% Book Odds: +360
Book Implied: 57.40% / % / 21.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 54%
Under 2.5 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Rayo)
RayoRayo (-0.5) 0 ElcheElche (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.8% / 43.2%

Shots (On Goal)

18(5) / 16(9)

Corners

3 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

26.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

36.9%

Elche By 1 goal

11.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Rayo vs Elche 0 - 3
Apr 3, 2026 Rayo vs Elche 1 - 0
Dec 21, 2025 Elche vs Rayo 4 - 0
Apr 29, 2023 Elche vs Rayo 4 - 0
Oct 3, 2022 Rayo vs Elche 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Rayo: 2.0 vs Elche: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Rayo: 8.0 vs Elche: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Elche: 5.0 vs Rayo: 9.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Elche: 3.0 vs Rayo: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Elche Score 1.0 3
Rayo Vallecano Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Elche (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Rayo Vallecano Share: 66.7% Elche Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
ML
44% 4-5
40% 4-6
44% 4-5
30% 3-7
ATS
44% 4-5
80% 8-2
56% 5-4
50% 5-5
TTL
38% 3-5-1
60% 6-4
38% 3-5-1
80% 8-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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