Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Málaga Alavés vs Málaga

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 3:00 PM ET
Mendizorrotza

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-4-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
35%
DRAW
31%
MÁLAGA
35%
▲ Edge: +34.10% (Málaga)
61% Book Odds: -158
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +282
16% Book Odds: +527
Book Implied: 61.20% / 26.20% / 15.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 2.25 49%
Under 2.25 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
MÁLAGA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Málaga)
AlavésAlavés (-1) 0 MálagaMálaga (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.7% / 50.3%

Shots (On Goal)

18(4) / 7(3)

Corners

7 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Málaga 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Málaga)

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

Málaga By 1 goal

21.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.60
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.60
Simulated Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.60
0
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 0.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw
42% Win Prob
A
Sim Alavés
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Málaga (+1)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Málaga (+1)
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.25
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.3
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 Alavés vs Málaga 1 - 1
May 6, 2018 Málaga vs Alavés 0 - 3
Dec 21, 2017 Alavés vs Málaga 1 - 0
Mar 11, 2017 Málaga vs Alavés 1 - 2
Oct 16, 2016 Alavés vs Málaga 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Alavés: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +66.7% more
Málaga: 5.0 vs Alavés: 3.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Málaga: 3.0 vs Alavés: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +57.1% more
Alavés: 7.0 vs Málaga: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Málaga Score 1.0 1
Alavés Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Alavés (Home) vs Málaga (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 50.0% Málaga Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Málaga
Alavés
Málaga
ML
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
ATS
67% 6-3
50% 4-4-1
65% 5-3
50% 4-4-1
TTL
50% 4-4-1
65% 5-3
20% 1-6-1
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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