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CHELSEACHELSEA

4-1-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:30 PM ET
Stamford Bridge

SPURSSPURS

1-3-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
CHELSEA
40%
DRAW
21%
SPURS
40%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (Tottenham Hotspur)
52% Book Odds: -109
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +298
26% Book Odds: +290
Book Implied: 52.20% / 25.10% / 25.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 3.0 39%
Under 3.0 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
SPURS
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Spurs)
ChelseaChelsea (-0.5) 0 SpursSpurs (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

31.5% / 68.5%

Shots (On Goal)

7(4) / 15(4)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tottenham Hotspur 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tottenham Hotspur)

Chelsea By 1 goal

21.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

15.9%

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

21.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.80
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1875
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.80
1125
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Loss
39% Win Prob
A
Sim Chelsea Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tottenham Hotspur (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Chelsea (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -750.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim o3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3000.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Chelsea vs Spurs 0 - 2
Nov 1, 2025 Spurs vs Chelsea 0 - 1
Apr 3, 2025 Chelsea vs Spurs 1 - 0
Dec 8, 2024 Spurs vs Chelsea 3 - 4
May 2, 2024 Chelsea vs Spurs 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Spurs: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
Spurs: 8.0 vs Chelsea: 9.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Chelsea: 3.0 vs Spurs: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +114.3% more
Chelsea: 15.0 vs Spurs: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tottenham Hotspur Score 2.0 2
Chelsea Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Chelsea (Home) vs Tottenham Hotspur (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Chelsea Share: 50.0% Tottenham Hotspur Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
ML
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
ATS
38% 3-5
71% 5-2-1
73% 5-2
29% 2-5-1
TTL
29% 2-5-1
38% 3-5
57% 4-3-1
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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