Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Arsenal vs Everton Arsenal vs Everton

ARSENALARSENAL

6-0-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 10:00 AM ET
Emirates Stadium

EVERTONEVERTON

2-4-1  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ARSENAL
61%
DRAW
21%
EVERTON
18%
▲ Edge: +30.10% (Everton)
73% Book Odds: -275
DRAW 19% Book Odds: +435
11% Book Odds: +815
Book Implied: 73.30% / 18.70% / 10.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 63%
Under 2.75 37%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
EVERTON
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Everton)
ArsenalArsenal (-1.2) 0 EvertonEverton (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.0% / 42.0%

Shots (On Goal)

20(4) / 8(3)

Corners

12 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Everton +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Everton)

Arsenal By 1 goal

26.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Everton By 1 goal

11.1%

Everton By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 2
1
EVERTON
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 2
0
EVERTON
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arsenal Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Arsenal Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Everton (+1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Arsenal (-1.25) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.8 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 Arsenal vs Everton 2 - 0
Mar 14, 2026 Arsenal vs Everton 2 - 0
Apr 5, 2025 Everton vs Arsenal 1 - 1
Dec 14, 2024 Arsenal vs Everton 0 - 0
May 19, 2024 Arsenal vs Everton 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 8.0 vs Everton: 4.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Arsenal: 3.0 vs Everton: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Everton: 2.0 vs Arsenal: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Everton: 4.0 vs Arsenal: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Everton Score 1.0 0
Arsenal Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Arsenal (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Arsenal Share: 66.7% Everton Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Arsenal
Everton
Arsenal
Everton
ML
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
ATS
31% 2-4-1
71% 5-2-1
70% 3-1-3
60% 4-3
TTL
36% 2-3-2
25% 2-6
45% 2-3-2
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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