Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Ipswich vs Nottm Forest Ipswich vs Nottm Forest

IPSWICHIPSWICH

3-0-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 3:00 PM ET
Portman Road

NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST

1-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
IPSWICH
61%
DRAW
21%
NOTTM FOREST
18%
▲ Edge: +13.70% (Nottingham Forest)
30% Book Odds: +230
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 30.30% / 29% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 56%
Under 2.5 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
IPSWICH
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Ipswich)
IpswichIpswich (+0.2) 0 Nottm ForestNottm Forest (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.4% / 50.6%

Shots (On Goal)

7(3) / 17(5)

Corners

0 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Ipswich Town -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Ipswich Town)

Ipswich Town By 1 goal

26.1%

Ipswich Town By 2+ goals

36.9%

Nottingham Forest By 1 goal

11.1%

Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
IPSWICH
Book Implied: 1.10
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
IPSWICH
Book Implied: 1.10
2
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ipswich Town
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Nottingham Forest
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ipswich Town (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Nottingham Forest (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 Ipswich vs Nottm Forest 1 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 Ipswich vs Nottm Forest 2 - 4
Nov 30, 2024 Nottm Forest vs Ipswich 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Ipswich: 9.0 vs Nottm Forest: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Ipswich: 2.0 vs Nottm Forest: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 1.0 vs Ipswich: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +83.3% more
Nottm Forest: 6.0 vs Ipswich: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Nottingham Forest Score 1.0 1
Ipswich Town Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Ipswich Town (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Ipswich Town Share: 66.7% Nottingham Forest Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
ML
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
ATS
46% 3-3
67% 4-2-1
23% 1-5
0% 0-5-2
TTL
23% 1-5
29% 2-5
69% 4-2
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.