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SANTOSSANTOS

5-1-6  |  Home

2
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Corona

UNAMUNAM

4-4-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
61%
DRAW
21%
UNAM
18%
▲ Edge: +2% (Pumas UNAM)
41% Book Odds: +146
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +274
36% Book Odds: +178
Book Implied: 40.70% / 26.70% / 36%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 51%
Under 3.0 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (0) 0 UNAMUNAM (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.0% / 35.0%

Shots (On Goal)

9(2) / 5(1)

Corners

9 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

36.9%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

11.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Santos
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Santos
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (+0)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Santos (+0)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Santos vs UNAM 2 - 0
Jan 30, 2026 UNAM vs Santos 4 - 0
Jul 12, 2025 Santos vs UNAM 3 - 0
Apr 16, 2025 UNAM vs Santos 2 - 0
Jul 13, 2024 Santos vs UNAM 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Santos: 4.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Santos: 3.0 vs UNAM: 8.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Santos: 0.0 vs UNAM: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +37.5% more
Santos: 11.0 vs UNAM: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 0
Santos Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Santos (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 66.7% Pumas UNAM Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Pumas UNAM
Santos
Pumas UNAM
ML
50% 6-6
50% 6-6
67% 8-4
18% 2-9
ATS
45% 5-6-1
57% 6-5
64% 7-4-1
10% 1-9
TTL
68% 7-3-1
65% 7-4
55% 6-5-1
70% 7-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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