Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Pachuca vs Cruz Azul Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

PACHUCAPACHUCA

3-4-5  |  Home

1
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Hidalgo

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

6-2-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
PACHUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
CRUZ AZUL
18%
▲ Edge: +13.60% (Cruz Azul)
31% Book Odds: +228
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +265
46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 30.50% / 27.40% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 53%
Under 3.0 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Pachuca)
PachucaPachuca (+0.2) 0 Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.8% / 56.2%

Shots (On Goal)

14(5) / 11(5)

Corners

0 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)

Pachuca By 1 goal

26.1%

Pachuca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

11.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1.40
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pachuca
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Cruz Azul
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pachuca (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Cruz Azul (-0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 1.0 vs Pachuca: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 1.0 vs Pachuca: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +83.3% more
Cruz Azul: 11.0 vs Pachuca: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Cruz Azul: 7.0 vs Pachuca: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Cruz Azul Score 1.0 2
Pachuca Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Pachuca (Home) vs Cruz Azul (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pachuca Share: 66.7% Cruz Azul Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pachuca
Cruz Azul
Pachuca
Cruz Azul
ML
33% 4-8
67% 8-4
27% 3-8
50% 6-6
ATS
67% 7-3-1
45% 5-6-1
20% 2-8-1
45% 5-6-1
TTL
55% 6-5-1
36% 4-7-1
30% 3-7-1
50% 6-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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