Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Toluca vs Tijuana Toluca vs Tijuana

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TIJUANATIJUANA

4-4-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
TIJUANA
18%
▲ Edge: +30.50% (Tijuana)
86% Book Odds: -610
DRAW 12% Book Odds: +727
6% Book Odds: +1537
Book Implied: 85.90% / 12.10% / 6.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 3.75 26%
Under 3.75 74%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
+2.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Tijuana)
TolucaToluca (-2.2) 0 TijuanaTijuana (+2.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

75.9% / 24.1%

Shots (On Goal)

32(6) / 12(4)

Corners

17 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 3
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 3
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toluca
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Toluca
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tijuana (+2.25)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Tijuana (+2.25)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.75
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Toluca vs Tijuana 2 - 2
Feb 28, 2026 Toluca vs Tijuana 2 - 0
Feb 13, 2026 Toluca vs Tijuana 1 - 0
Oct 22, 2025 Tijuana vs Toluca 0 - 0
Sep 20, 2025 Tijuana vs Toluca 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Toluca: 8.0 vs Tijuana: 5.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 1.0 vs Toluca: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Tijuana: 6.0 vs Toluca: 10.0
Draws (L5) +50.0% more
Tijuana: 3.0 vs Toluca: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 2
Toluca Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Toluca (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Toluca Share: 66.7% Tijuana Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Tijuana
Toluca
Tijuana
ML
50% 6-6
18% 2-9
50% 6-6
45% 5-6
ATS
50% 5-5-2
78% 7-2-2
80% 8-2-2
44% 4-5-2
TTL
36% 4-7-1
55% 6-5
64% 7-4-1
45% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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