Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Puebla vs Monterrey Puebla vs Monterrey

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-4-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

MONTERREYMONTERREY

5-2-4  |  Away

4
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
61%
DRAW
21%
MONTERREY
18%
▲ Edge: +33% (Puebla)
26% Book Odds: +286
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +281
51% Book Odds: -105
Book Implied: 25.90% / 26.20% / 51.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 70%
Under 2.75 30%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Puebla)
PueblaPuebla (+0.5) 0 MonterreyMonterrey (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.1% / 59.9%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 14(6)

Corners

2 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Puebla By 1 goal

26.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

36.9%

Monterrey By 1 goal

11.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
0
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Puebla
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Monterrey
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Puebla (+0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Monterrey (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u2.8
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Puebla vs Monterrey 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Puebla: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Puebla: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 6.0
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Monterrey: 6.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Monterrey: 2.0 vs Puebla: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Monterrey Score 1.0 4
Puebla Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Puebla (Home) vs Monterrey (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 66.7% Monterrey Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Monterrey
Puebla
Monterrey
ML
42% 5-7
36% 4-7
42% 5-7
45% 5-6
ATS
68% 6-3-2
45% 4-5-1
59% 5-3-3
40% 4-6-1
TTL
36% 4-7-1
50% 5-5-1
50% 6-6
50% 5-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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