Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlas vs América Atlas vs América

ATLASATLAS

8-3-5  |  Home

2
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-6-2  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
35%
DRAW
31%
AMÉRICA
35%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (América)
29% Book Odds: +251
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +281
49% Book Odds: +106
Book Implied: 28.50% / 26.20% / 48.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 3.0 50%
Under 3.0 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlas)
AtlasAtlas (+0.5) 0 AméricaAmérica (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.4% / 43.6%

Shots (On Goal)

23(6) / 14(6)

Corners

9 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Atlas By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

15.9%

América By 1 goal

21.1%

América By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.20
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.20
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
36% Win Prob
B
Sim América Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlas (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim América (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 Atlas vs América 2 - 5
Aug 24, 2025 Atlas vs América 2 - 4
Mar 15, 2025 Atlas vs América 1 - 3
Sep 17, 2024 América vs Atlas 3 - 0
Mar 2, 2024 Atlas vs América 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +42.9% more
América: 10.0 vs Atlas: 7.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 4.0 vs América: 8.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs América: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 0.0 vs América: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 1.0 5
Atlas Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlas (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 50.0% América Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
América
Atlas
América
ML
46% 6-7
29% 4-10
38% 5-8
57% 8-6
ATS
62% 7-4-1
50% 6-6-2
52% 6-5-1
67% 8-4-2
TTL
54% 7-6
46% 6-7-1
38% 5-8
62% 8-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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