Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Nuggets GS @ DEN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

1-3  |  Road

134
FINAL
Mon, Oct 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

1-2  |  Home

114
Key Game
Will Richard
KEY GAME

Will Richard

#3 | Guard
@
Ryan Nembhard
KEY GAME

Ryan Nembhard

#9 | Guard
Player
Will Richard None-None
Ryan Nembhard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
24%
📊
NUGGETS
76%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (DEN)
WARRIORS 33% Book Odds: +200
NUGGETS 69% Book Odds: -220
Book Implied: 33.30% / 68.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
236.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +14.5 (Under)
Over 236.5 21%
Under 236.5 79%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DENVER
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Denver)
WarriorsGS (+7.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (-7.5)
Denver Nuggets (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

13.6%

Nuggets Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

GS By 1-7 points

9.3%

GS By 8-14 points

2.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
105.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 114.50
116.5
DENVER
Book Implied: 122
Simulated Score
94
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 114.50
105
DENVER
Book Implied: 122
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nuggets Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Nuggets Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nuggets (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim Nuggets (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u236.5 Loss
Proj Total: 222.0
A
Sim u236.5 Loss
Proj Total: 199.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2026 GS @ DEN 134 - 114
Mar 29, 2026 GS @ DEN 93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026 DEN @ GS 117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025 GS @ DEN 104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025 DEN @ GS 131 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.7% more
Denver: 5.0 vs Golden State: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Denver: 45.0 vs Golden State: 40.7
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Golden State: 10.2 vs Denver: 8.0
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Golden State: 17.5 vs Denver: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 105.5 134
DEN Score 116.5 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 36.2 34.0 / 50.0
Assists 23.9 / 24.4 31.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.5 50.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 79.4 87.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 45.0 / 40.7 32.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.0 / 10.2 13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 17.5 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +200 / -220 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5 / -5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 231.5 → 236.5 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
8-5-0 (61.5%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +5.6
DEN
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS Advantage
8-5-0 (61.5%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +5.6
DEN
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
7-6-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.3
DEN
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
GS
DEN
GS
ML
80% 8-2
54% 7-6
50% 5-5
46% 6-7
ATS
50% 5-5
38% 5-8
40% 4-6
38% 5-8
TTL
30% 3-7
69% 9-4
50% 5-5
38% 5-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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