Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Rockets ATL @ HOU

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

2-2  |  Road

110
FINAL
Mon, Oct 26 • 8:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

4-0  |  Home

120
Key Game
Kingston Flemings
KEY GAME

Kingston Flemings

#4 | Guard
@
Bruce Thornton
KEY GAME

Bruce Thornton

#2 | Guard
Player
Kingston Flemings None-None
Bruce Thornton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
35%
📊
ROCKETS
65%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (HOU)
HAWKS 40% Book Odds: +150
ROCKETS 62% Book Odds: -165
Book Implied: 40% / 62.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.5
Projected
Book Total
228.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 228.5 34%
Under 228.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
HawksATL (+4.5) 0 RocketsHOU (-4.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+4.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

67.4%

Rockets Cover

32.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL +4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-7 points

19.3%

ATL By 8-14 points

8.6%

HOU By 1-7 points

27.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

22.3%

AI Model Projected Score
109
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 112
113.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 116.50
Simulated Score
94
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 112
108
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 116.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockets Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockets Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.5
D
Sim Rockets (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 222.5
A
Sim u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 202.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2026 ATL @ HOU 110 - 120
Oct 24, 2026 HOU @ ATL 121 - 114
Mar 20, 2026 ATL @ HOU 95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026 HOU @ ATL 104 - 86
Mar 25, 2025 ATL @ HOU 114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.9% more
Houston: 4.6 vs Atlanta: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
Houston: 83.2% vs Atlanta: 71.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Houston: 37.1% vs Atlanta: 32.6%
Assists (L5) +18.4% more
Atlanta: 30.8 vs Houston: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 109.0 110
HOU Score 113.5 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 32.6 30.0 / 28.0
Assists 25.1 / 30.8 31.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.3 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 46.2 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 71.5 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 41.5 52.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.0 / 10.2 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.7 22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -226 → +150 / -165 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 228.5 → 228.5
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
7-6-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
10-3-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
4-9-0 (30.8%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
9-4-0 (69.2%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
7-6-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +2.0
HOU
8-5-0
O: 61.5% / U: 38.5% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
62% 8-5
46% 6-7
62% 8-5
62% 8-5
ATS
54% 7-6
38% 5-8
31% 4-9
69% 9-4
TTL
46% 6-7
46% 6-7
38% 5-8
62% 8-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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