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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

1-2  |  Road

114
FINAL
Mon, Oct 26 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

4-0  |  Home

125
Key Game
Jamaree Bouyea
KEY GAME

Jamaree Bouyea

#17 | Guard
@
Bennett Stirtz
KEY GAME

Bennett Stirtz

#14 | Guard
Player
Jamaree Bouyea None-None
Bennett Stirtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
29%
📊
THUNDER
71%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (PHX)
SUNS 29% Book Odds: +250
THUNDER 73% Book Odds: -275
Book Implied: 28.60% / 73.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.0
Projected
Book Total
221.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 221.5 42%
Under 221.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.6
PHOENIX
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Phoenix)
SunsPHX (+8.5) 0 ThunderOKC (-8.5)
Phoenix Suns (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

71.2%

Thunder Cover

28.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX +5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

PHX By 1-7 points

17.6%

PHX By 8-14 points

7.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.8%

AI Model Projected Score
106.2
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 106.50
111.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 115
Simulated Score
100
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 106.50
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 115
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Thunder Win
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.6
C
Sim Suns (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 218.0
B
Sim u221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 203.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2026 PHX @ OKC 114 - 125
Apr 27, 2026 OKC @ PHX 131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026 OKC @ PHX 121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026 PHX @ OKC 107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026 PHX @ OKC 84 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.6 vs Phoenix: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +36.4% more
Oklahoma City: 6.4 vs Phoenix: 4.7
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
Oklahoma City: 44.9 vs Phoenix: 39.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Oklahoma City: 88.8% vs Phoenix: 77.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 106.2 114
OKC Score 111.8 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 32.3 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 23.3 / 24.3 24.0 / 29.0
Blocks 6.4 / 4.7 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 48.3 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 88.8 / 77.3 86.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 44.9 / 39.9 48.0 / 38.0
Steals 11.6 / 8.4 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 15.7 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +250 / -275 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 218.5 → 221.5 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
5-6-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -2.9
OKC Advantage
8-4-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
3-8-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -2.9
OKC Advantage
7-5-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
6-5-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +3.0
OKC
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
54% 7-6
82% 9-2
38% 5-8
55% 6-5
ATS
23% 3-10
36% 4-7
23% 3-10
36% 4-7
TTL
62% 8-5
45% 5-6
69% 9-4
18% 2-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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