INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-2 | Road
102
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-3 | Home
110
Key Game
KEY GAME
Quenton Jackson
#29 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Kasparas Jakucionis
#25 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Quenton Jackson | None-None |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
44%
BUCKS
56%
▲ Edge: +14.90% (MIL)
PACERS
61%
Book Odds: -155
BUCKS
41%
Book Odds: +145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.5
Projected
Book Total
238.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 238.5
49%
Under 238.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
IND By 1-7 points
19.3%
IND By 8-14 points
8.6%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
22.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
116.5
INDIANA
Book Implied: 121
Milwaukee
121
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 117.50
Simulated Score
Indiana
102
INDIANA
Book Implied: 121
Milwaukee
106
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 117.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Bucks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim
Bucks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 237.5
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 208.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 26, 2026
IND @ MIL
102 - 110
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Milwaukee: 19.2
vs
Indiana: 16.3
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
Milwaukee: 48.9
vs
Indiana: 41.9
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Indiana: 7.8
vs
Milwaukee: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+17.1% more
Indiana: 30.9
vs
Milwaukee: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
116.5
102
MIL Score
121.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 36.4
30.0 / 27.0
Assists
25.6 / 30.9
27.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.8
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 50.3
43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 75.7
71.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
48.9 / 41.9
61.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.8
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
19.2 / 16.3
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -170 / +142
→
-155 / +145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5
→
-3.5 / +3.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 239.5
→
238.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
Advantage
5-8-0
(38.5%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
MIL
1-12-0
(7.7%)
Margin: -14.1
ATS +/-: -5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
8-5-0
(61.5%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
MIL
5-8-0
(38.5%)
Margin: -14.1
ATS +/-: -5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
4-9-0
O: 30.8% / U: 69.2%
Total +/-: -7.2
MIL
6-7-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
85%
11-2
69%
9-4
77%
10-3
54%
7-6
ATS
54%
7-6
46%
6-7
69%
9-4
62%
8-5
TTL
31%
4-9
38%
5-8
46%
6-7
62%
8-5
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