DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
2-2 | Road
113
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-4 | Home
109
Key Game
KEY GAME
Walter Clayton Jr.
#1 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Pelle Larsson
#9 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Walter Clayton Jr. | None-None |
| Pelle Larsson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
25%
HEAT
75%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (MIA)
MAVERICKS
31%
Book Odds: +225
HEAT
71%
Book Odds: -245
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.4
Projected
Book Total
240.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 240.5
47%
Under 240.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DAL By 1-7 points
13.7%
DAL By 8-14 points
4.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
25.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
116.2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 116.50
Miami
124.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 124
Simulated Score
Dallas
106
DALLAS
Book Implied: 116.50
Miami
112
MIAMI
Book Implied: 124
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Heat
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Heat
Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 240.4
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 26, 2026
DAL @ MIA
113 - 109
Dec 3, 2025
MIA @ DAL
108 - 118
Nov 24, 2025
DAL @ MIA
102 - 106
Feb 13, 2025
MIA @ DAL
113 - 118
Nov 24, 2024
DAL @ MIA
118 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Miami: 79.6%
vs
Dallas: 74.0%
Blocks (L5)
+30.3% more
Dallas: 6.6
vs
Miami: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.3% more
Dallas: 17.2
vs
Miami: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+16.6% more
Dallas: 9.1
vs
Miami: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
116.2
113
MIA Score
124.2
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 37.7
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
26.5 / 27.2
26.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.6 / 6.6
5.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 49.5
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 74.0
56.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 43.0
42.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.1
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 17.2
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +267 / -345
→
+225 / -245
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5
→
+7.5 / -7.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 233.5
→
240.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
7-5-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: +4.6
MIA
6-6-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
Advantage
7-5-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: +4.6
MIA
3-9-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -4.4
MIA
5-7-0
O: 41.7% / U: 58.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DAL
MIA
DAL
ML
67%
8-4
58%
7-5
75%
9-3
58%
7-5
ATS
58%
7-5
42%
5-7
58%
7-5
50%
6-6
TTL
50%
6-6
67%
8-4
50%
6-6
58%
7-5
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