WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-2 | Road
103
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
3-1 | Home
110
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tre Johnson
#12 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Christian Anderson
#5 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tre Johnson | None-None |
| Christian Anderson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
30%
HORNETS
70%
▲ Edge: +9.40% (CHA)
WIZARDS
42%
Book Odds: +140
HORNETS
60%
Book Odds: -152
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.4
Projected
Book Total
226.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +6.4 (Over)
Over 226.0
61%
Under 226.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
WSH By 1-7 points
10.7%
WSH By 8-14 points
3.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
23.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
111.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 111.50
Charlotte
121.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 114.50
Simulated Score
Washington
94
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 111.50
Charlotte
106
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 114.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Hornets
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Hornets
Win
80% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Hornets (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim
Hornets (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o226.0
Loss
Proj Total: 232.4
B
Sim
u226.0
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 30, 2026
CHA @ WSH
79 - 95
Oct 26, 2026
WSH @ CHA
103 - 110
Feb 22, 2026
CHA @ WSH
129 - 112
Jan 24, 2026
WSH @ CHA
115 - 119
Dec 23, 2025
WSH @ CHA
109 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
Charlotte: 18.6
vs
Washington: 16.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Charlotte: 87.9%
vs
Washington: 82.1%
Steals (L5)
+31.6% more
Washington: 8.5
vs
Charlotte: 5.8
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Washington: 25.9
vs
Charlotte: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
111.2
103
CHA Score
121.2
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 31.7
31.0 / 32.0
Assists
22.5 / 25.9
17.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.4 / 5.6
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 46.0
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
87.9 / 82.1
82.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 42.1
54.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.5
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
18.6 / 16.3
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -101 / -116
→
+140 / -152
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+3 / -3
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 232.5
→
226
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
4-9-0
(30.8%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
CHA
Advantage
4-8-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -11.0
ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
6-7-0
(46.2%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
CHA
5-7-0
(41.7%)
Margin: -11.0
ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
4-9-0
O: 30.8% / U: 69.2%
Total +/-: -3.5
CHA
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -8.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
WSH
CHA
WSH
ML
67%
8-4
69%
9-4
58%
7-5
85%
11-2
ATS
50%
6-6
38%
5-8
42%
5-7
69%
9-4
TTL
42%
5-7
62%
8-5
50%
6-6
85%
11-2
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