Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Getafe vs Rayo Getafe vs Rayo

GETAFEGETAFE

2-2-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Mon, Oct 19 • 3:00 PM ET
Estadio Coliseum

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
GETAFE
35%
DRAW
31%
RAYO
35%
▲ Edge: +12.30% (Rayo Vallecano)
33% Book Odds: +205
DRAW --
38% Book Odds: +165
Book Implied: 32.80% / % / 37.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
1.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 1.5 32%
Under 1.5 68%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
GetafeGetafe (+0.5) 0 RayoRayo (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

31.7% / 68.3%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 21(5)

Corners

8 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

6/1 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Getafe By 1 goal

21.1%

Getafe By 2+ goals

15.9%

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

21.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
GETAFE
Book Implied: 0.50
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
0
GETAFE
Book Implied: 0.50
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
35% Win Prob
B
Sim Rayo Vallecano Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rayo Vallecano (-0) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Rayo Vallecano (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
B
Sim u1.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 Getafe vs Rayo 1 - 1
Jan 2, 2026 Rayo vs Getafe 1 - 1
May 2, 2025 Rayo vs Getafe 1 - 0
Aug 24, 2024 Getafe vs Rayo 0 - 0
Apr 13, 2024 Rayo vs Getafe 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Rayo: 9.0 vs Getafe: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Rayo: 2.0 vs Getafe: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +116.7% more
Getafe: 6.0 vs Rayo: 13.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Getafe: 2.0 vs Rayo: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.0 1
Getafe Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Getafe (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Getafe Share: 50.0% Rayo Vallecano Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
ML
67% 6-3
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
50% 4-4
ATS
44% 4-5
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
TTL
44% 4-5
29% 2-5-1
44% 4-5
29% 2-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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