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SPURSSPURS

1-3-3  |  Home

3
FINAL
Mon, Oct 19 • 3:00 PM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

COVENTRYCOVENTRY

2-0-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
61%
DRAW
21%
COVENTRY
18%
▲ Edge: +26% (Coventry City)
64% Book Odds: -175
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +360
18% Book Odds: +465
Book Implied: 63.60% / 21.70% / 17.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 54%
Under 3.0 46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
COVENTRY
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
SpursSpurs (-1) 0 CoventryCoventry (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.4% / 34.6%

Shots (On Goal)

16(5) / 12(1)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Coventry City +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Coventry City)

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

26.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

36.9%

Coventry City By 1 goal

11.1%

Coventry City By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 2
1
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 2
0
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tottenham Hotspur Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Tottenham Hotspur Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coventry City (+1) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Tottenham Hotspur (-1) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 Spurs vs Coventry 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Spurs: 3.0 vs Coventry: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Spurs: 2.0 vs Coventry: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +42.9% more
Spurs: 7.0 vs Coventry: 10.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Coventry: 2.0 vs Spurs: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Coventry City Score 1.0 1
Tottenham Hotspur Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tottenham Hotspur (Home) vs Coventry City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tottenham Hotspur Share: 66.7% Coventry City Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tottenham Hotspur
Coventry City
Tottenham Hotspur
Coventry City
ML
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
ATS
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
TTL
43% 3-4
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
33% 2-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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