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NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST

1-2-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 11:30 AM ET
The City Ground

ARSENALARSENAL

6-0-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NOTTM FOREST
18%
DRAW
21%
ARSENAL
61%
▲ Edge: +32.80% (Nottingham Forest)
14% Book Odds: +615
DRAW 24% Book Odds: +325
66% Book Odds: -190
Book Implied: 14% / 23.50% / 65.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 60%
Under 2.5 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
NOTTM FOREST
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
Nottm ForestNottm Forest (+1) 0 ArsenalArsenal (-1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

26.2% / 73.8%

Shots (On Goal)

14(2) / 9(1)

Corners

8 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Nottingham Forest +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Nottingham Forest)

Nottingham Forest By 1 goal

11.1%

Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals

4.8%

Arsenal By 1 goal

26.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 0.80
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 0.80
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arsenal Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Arsenal Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nottingham Forest (+1) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Nottingham Forest (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Nottm Forest vs Arsenal 0 - 1
Jan 17, 2026 Nottm Forest vs Arsenal 0 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 Arsenal vs Nottm Forest 3 - 0
Feb 26, 2025 Nottm Forest vs Arsenal 0 - 0
Nov 23, 2024 Arsenal vs Nottm Forest 3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Arsenal: 4.0 vs Nottm Forest: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +120.0% more
Arsenal: 11.0 vs Nottm Forest: 5.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Arsenal: 1.0 vs Nottm Forest: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +16.7% more
Arsenal: 6.0 vs Nottm Forest: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Arsenal Score 2.0 1
Nottingham Forest Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Nottingham Forest Share: 33.3% Arsenal Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
ML
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
14% 1-6
86% 6-1
ATS
67% 4-2-1
36% 2-3-1
0% 0-5-2
62% 2-1-3
TTL
29% 2-5
44% 2-2-2
29% 2-5
33% 1-3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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