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LEEDSLEEDS

3-5-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 9:00 AM ET
Elland Road

MAN UTDMAN UTD

1-4-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEEDS
18%
DRAW
21%
MAN UTD
61%
▲ Edge: +11.10% (Manchester United)
39% Book Odds: +156
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
35% Book Odds: +189
Book Implied: 39.10% / 29% / 34.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 63%
Under 2.5 37%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN UTD
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Man Utd)
LeedsLeeds (0) 0 Man UtdMan Utd (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.3% / 38.7%

Shots (On Goal)

12(5) / 13(3)

Corners

2 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester United)

Leeds United By 1 goal

11.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

4.8%

Manchester United By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.20
2
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.20
1
MAN UTD
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Manchester United Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Leeds United Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Manchester United (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Leeds United (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Leeds vs Man Utd 1 - 1
Apr 13, 2026 Man Utd vs Leeds 1 - 2
Jan 4, 2026 Leeds vs Man Utd 1 - 1
Feb 12, 2023 Leeds vs Man Utd 0 - 2
Feb 8, 2023 Man Utd vs Leeds 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +25.0% more
Man Utd: 8.0 vs Leeds: 10.0
Goals Scored (L5) +125.0% more
Leeds: 9.0 vs Man Utd: 4.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Leeds: 1.0 vs Man Utd: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Leeds: 2.0 vs Man Utd: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester United Score 2.0 1
Leeds United Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Leeds United (Home) vs Manchester United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Leeds United Share: 33.3% Manchester United Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Leeds United
Manchester United
Leeds United
Manchester United
ML
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
30% 3-7
22% 2-7
ATS
0% 0-6-3
75% 6-2-1
31% 2-4-3
25% 2-6-1
TTL
20% 2-8
59% 5-3
40% 4-6
41% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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