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BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

4-1-1  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 9:00 AM ET
American Express Stadium

C PALACEC PALACE

2-1-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BRIGHTON
61%
DRAW
21%
C PALACE
18%
▲ Edge: +19.20% (Crystal Palace)
70% Book Odds: -230
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +410
14% Book Odds: +620
Book Implied: 69.70% / 19.60% / 13.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 56%
Under 3.0 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
C PALACE
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (C Palace)
BrightonBrighton (-1.2) 0 C PalaceC Palace (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.2% / 42.8%

Shots (On Goal)

17(9) / 5(1)

Corners

8 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Crystal Palace +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Crystal Palace)

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

26.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

36.9%

Crystal Palace By 1 goal

11.1%

Crystal Palace By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 2.10
1
C PALACE
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 2.10
0
C PALACE
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Brighton & Hove Albion
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crystal Palace (+1.25)
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion (-1.25)
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Brighton vs C Palace 5 - 0
Feb 8, 2026 Brighton vs C Palace 0 - 1
Nov 9, 2025 C Palace vs Brighton 0 - 0
Apr 5, 2025 C Palace vs Brighton 2 - 1
Dec 15, 2024 Brighton vs C Palace 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Brighton: 2.0 vs C Palace: 6.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Brighton: 0.0 vs C Palace: 2.0
Wins (L5) +150.0% more
Brighton: 5.0 vs C Palace: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +88.9% more
Brighton: 17.0 vs C Palace: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Crystal Palace Score 1.0 0
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 2.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Brighton & Hove Albion (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 66.7% Crystal Palace Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
ML
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
ATS
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
TTL
45% 2-3
33% 2-4
45% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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