Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Bournemouth vs Sunderland Bournemouth vs Sunderland

BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 9:00 AM ET
Vitality Stadium

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

1-1-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BOURNEMOUTH
61%
DRAW
21%
SUNDERLAND
18%
▲ Edge: +27.70% (Sunderland)
49% Book Odds: +104
DRAW 30% Book Odds: +234
24% Book Odds: +313
Book Implied: 49% / 29.90% / 24.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 53%
Under 2.25 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Bournemouth)
BournemouthBournemouth (-0.5) 0 SunderlandSunderland (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.0% / 35.0%

Shots (On Goal)

29(6) / 3(0)

Corners

5 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around AFC Bournemouth -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFC Bournemouth)

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

26.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

36.9%

Sunderland By 1 goal

11.1%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
2
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.40
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI AFC Bournemouth
48% Win Prob
D
Sim AFC Bournemouth
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI AFC Bournemouth (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim AFC Bournemouth (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.25
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.3
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Bournemouth vs Sunderland 2 - 0
Feb 28, 2026 Bournemouth vs Sunderland 1 - 1
Nov 29, 2025 Sunderland vs Bournemouth 3 - 2
Apr 29, 2017 Sunderland vs Bournemouth 0 - 1
Nov 5, 2016 Bournemouth vs Sunderland 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Bournemouth: 1.0 vs Sunderland: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Bournemouth: 2.0 vs Sunderland: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Bournemouth: 8.0 vs Sunderland: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +11.1% more
Bournemouth: 9.0 vs Sunderland: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Sunderland Score 1.0 0
AFC Bournemouth Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
AFC Bournemouth (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AFC Bournemouth Share: 66.7% Sunderland Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
ML
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
ATS
70% 3-1-1
67% 4-2
50% 2-2-1
67% 4-2
TTL
60% 3-2-1
18% 1-4
60% 3-2-1
64% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.